1. What is the reason of rate downswing of national currency of Tajikistan in relation to US dollar which is observed almost daily?
NBT maintains stability and liquidity of the domestic currency market
Answers to questions of M. Abdulloeva - correspondent of a weekly paper «Asia plus»
- At present in the most world financial markets the excessive rate fluctuation of a foreign currency is observed. Exchange rates by their nature are very sensitive, and are not only under the influence of macroeconomic, but also under many other factors which influence a currency supply and demand in the markets.
Changes which happen in region, also directly influence on demand on a foreign exchange in the domestic market.
There are objectively long-term factors inherent in economy and financial market of our country which seasonally increase demand and reduce the foreign currency supply, including cash currency.
The negative balance of trading balance (USD 2,7 bln.) appertains to given factors which has led to minus balance of volumes of inflow and outflow of a foreign currency and its deficiency, decrease in volume of remittances of physical persons, and especially its dollar part, seasonal increase in demand at USD cash and decrease of its supply, decrease in receipt of export currency gain etc.
This year the situation was aggravated under the influence of the universal strengthening tendency of USD to other national currencies. It is connected with a geopolitical aggravation of a situation in the world, in the Middle East, in Ukraine and in Russia, and also by change of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System with the view of support of a financial system of America.
2. What does National bank of Tajikistan do for prevention of the further decrease of TJS rate?
- The National Bank of Tajikistan along with application of measures of a monetary policy also constantly is present in the currency market, provides its liquidity and stability.
Thus, from the beginning of year the National Bank of Tajikistan performed regular sale of currency in the domestic market. These measures allow to level supply and demand of a foreign currency and provide stability of the market and a rate accordingly.
3. Is the National Bank of Tajikistan intended to perform new intervene in the foreign-exchange market, and whether it has necessary means for it?
- The National Bank of Tajikistan will perform as required operations in the domestic market for smoothing of excessive rate fluctuations and demand for a foreign currency, thereby providing stability and liquidity of the market. For this purpose there are all mechanisms and necessary means.
4. What gold and exchange currency reserves the National Bank of Tajikistan has?
- The NBT gold and exchange currency reserves grow and have steady growth dynamics. Annual rate of its growth on the average with the view of last changes makes 10-12 percent. As of November, 14th of current year the NBT general gold and exchange currency reserves have made USD 1,2 bln., increasing monthly in average on USD 27-35 mln.
5. Under forecasts, according to the Law of the Republic of Tajikistan “On the State budget for 2014” the dollar exchange rate should not exceed TJS 5 for a USD. How can you comment on it?
- First of all, it is necessary to notice that in the Law of the Republic of Tajikistan “On the State budget for 2014” USD exchange rate is used only as a settlement rate for the forecast of the basic indicators.
Thus, in process of realisation of the given Law which is made one year ahead, a rate of foreign exchange (in this case US Dollar) consists of market conditions in the current period. So it is possible to point out, that in the past there were periods when the current rate developed as lower so higher of a settlement rate.
How decisions on the change of the refinancing rate are made?
The refinancing rate (official interest rate) is one of the instruments of the monetary policy implementation. The official interest rate implies the minimum interest rate on which the National (central) Bank lends to the banks of the second level.
The decision on the change of the refinancing rate shall be accepted by the Board of the National Bank of Tajikistan based on the suggestions of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Tajikistan. The objective of the Committee’s activity is the coordination of the monetary and fiscal policy implementation for the efficient management of the short-term liquidity. The refinancing rate thus, plays an anchor role for the loan policy of banks and influences interest rates under deposits and credits in the money market.
An increasing of refinancing rate means tightening in the monetary policy and, as a rule, it is used to restrain monetary aggregates growth. Decreasing of refinancing rate stimulates credit activity of the banks, that promotes the money growth.
Will a market exchange rate be defined by the NBT or by market laws? If nevertheless the NBT regulates the exchange rate in the market, is it possible to consider that we follow the floating exchange rate principle?
At present in the country it is applied the regime of «adjustable floating rate without determination of its fluctuation marks». This regime assumes to set the exchange rate of currencies, exclusively on the basis of supply and demand parity in the market, testifying that exclusively market principle of its formation is used.
At the same time, the official exchange rate of Somoni to US dollar shall be defined daily on the basis of average value of average exchange rates of buying-selling transactions effected (between banks) in the inter-banking and in the intra-banking segments (between banks and their customers) of exchange market.
The National Bank of Tajikistan has the right to perform respective operations in the market (currency buying/selling) exclusively when current exchange rate is subjected to excessively sharp fluctuations.