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  • Яндекс.Метрика

Short macroeconomic review and activity of banking system of Tajikistan for 2015

22.02.2016

The next press-conference following the results of activity of the National Bank of Tajikistan and banking system of the country for 2015 held today, on January 26, 2016 where the actual issues of banking system as monetary policy implementation, development of banking system, inflation rate, prices for consumer goods, development of payment system, growth of deposits, national currency rate, restructuring of the National Bank of Tajikistan, results of held surveys, Program of improvement for 2015-2019 and other important pressing problems of the branch have been discussed.

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As the Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan Jamshed Nurmahmadzoda has noted in his address to journalists, an unstable economic and financial situation in the world, also economic sanctions imposed against countries – basic trading partners of Tajikistan, exchange rate fluctuation and drop in prices for commodities and raw materials in the world markets have made a negative impact on economy of developing countries including Tajikistan. A decline of remittances and attraction of foreign investments also have caused instability of exchange rate, reduction of really had incomes of population and level of demand.

It has been underlined that the given tendency is indicative not only for Tajikistan but also for other countries of region and the world.

1. Macroeconomic indicators

Total Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Despite the negative influence of world economic and financial crisis in 2015 it was observed a rather stable level of real growth of economy - 6,0 % in the republic and its nominal volume has reached TJS 48,4 billion. (For comparison: real growth of the GDP made 6,7 % in 2014).

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Inflation

For the reporting year as a result of taken necessary measures by the National Bank of Tajikistan the inflation rate in comparison with previous year has decreased by 2,3 percentage points, having made 5,1 %. The world financial and economic crisis, decrease of internal demand and population incomes also promoted the reduction of inflation rate in the country. The occurred inflation basically has been caused due to rise in prices for food articles of 4,3 %, non-food articles of 7,87 % and paid services of 2,3 %. (For the reference: according to the Monetary policy projection for 2015, the given indicator has been projected as 7,5 %).

National currency rate

The Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan has declared that external exchange rate pressure has proceeded for the indicated period. The given increase has been caused first of all by foreign economic factors, especially intense geopolitical situation of the basic economic and strategic partner of Tajikistan – Russia, which has caused non-uniform movement of foreign capital and depreciation of national currency.

In 2015 with a view of preservation of national currency rate stability the National Bank of Tajikistan has made currency interventions to the cash market for the amount of USD 61,7 million and to the inter-bank market for the amount of USD 383,4 million.

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At the same time, with the purpose of introduction of new system of cash foreign currency purchase and sale operations it was approved the Instruction No.211 «On procedure of foreign currency operations» which defines a procedure and rules of arrangement, realization, registration, accounting and reporting of foreign currency operations in credit institutions. According to the given Instruction all operations on foreign currency purchase and sale will be carried out further in cash desks of head offices of banks, branches and banking service centers by uniform electronic operational system of credit institutions.

Despite the taken measures, in 2015 the exchange rate of somoni in relation to the US dollar tended to decrease and its official rate for this period has decreased from TJS 5,3074 to TJS 6,9902 (31,7 %). The market rate on purchase and sale of cash currency of the US dollar has become stronger from TJS 5,47 to TJS 7,58 or 38,6 %.

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At the same time, for this period the official exchange rate of somoni in relation to Euro has decreased by 18,5 % and the Russian ruble by 16,1 %. Further in his address Jamshed Nurmahmadzoda has noted that decrease in the exchange rate of national currency in relation to foreign currency was influenced by the following factors:

- Reduction of foreign currency inflow to the republic at the expense of all sources, including at the expense of decrease in volume of remittances of physical persons - 33,3 %. (At the same time, remittances in the Russian ruble have increased, having decreased, however in dollar equivalent);

- Decrease in volume of foreign trade turnover;

- Restriction of access of credit institutions to foreign currency credits of foreign banks;

- Unstable economic growth of countries-basic trading partners and also decrease of national currency of these countries, especially the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan;

- Attempts of gamble on exchange rate of foreign currency with the purpose of larger incomes receiving at the expense of difference between the official rate and rate of informal market of purchase and sale of cash US dollar and etc.

Also it is necessary to note that the global tendency of the US dollar exchange rate strengthening, many national currencies of region and the world countries, despite available considerable currency reserves weakening in relation to the US dollar, proceeds. Thus, in particular, in 2015 the exchange rate of Azerbaijan manat has decreased by 98,8 %, the Kazakh tenge by 86,2 %, Belarus ruble - 56,0 %, Ukrainian grivna - 52,2 %, Brazilian real - 47,1 %, the Russian ruble - 29,6 %, Kirghiz som - 28,9 %, Georgian lari - 27,2 %, Turkish lira - 25,3 %, Uzbek som - 16,0 %, Euro - 1,1 %, Iranian rial- 10,9 % and the Chinese yuan - 5,7 %.

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Balance of payments

The foreign trade turnover for reporting year has made USD 4 325,5 million and concerning last year has decreased by 18,0 %. The volume of foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries has decreased to 15,0 %, and with the far abroad countries by 20,5 %.

According to data of the Agency of Statistics, the export of goods for the considered period has made USD 890,6 million, having decreased in comparison with previous year on 8,9 %.

The import of goods has reached USD 3 434,9 million that in comparison with last year is less by 20,1 %. The trade balance for the indicated period has developed negatively and has made USD 2 544,3 million that is less on 23,4 % against last year.

2. Monetary policy

During the press conference it has been noted that taking into account an economic and financial situation the National Bank of Tajikistan in 2015 realized the balanced monetary policy and has directed its activity on preservation of necessary level of money supply in circulation, sound inflation rate and restriction of excessive exchange rate fluctuation.

With a view of effective monetary policy implementation and securities market activation for the reporting period the National Bank of Tajikistan has held 83 auctions of securities for the amount of TJS 1,8 billion that in comparison with 2014 is more twice. In order to ensure the liquidity of banking system and support to real sector of economy, a refinancing rate remained without changes at level of 8,0 % per annum and reserve requirements ratio of credit institutions has been lowered for deposits in national currency to 0,5 percentage points and foreign currency to 1,0 percentage points having made 1,5 % and 7,0 % per annum accordingly.

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At the same time the interest rate on loans for ensuing liquidity of credit institutions has been lowered by 1,17 percentage points and made 17,5 % per annum. Also in 2015 the National Bank of Tajikistan has given to domestic banks short-term loans for liquidity (for 3 months) of TJS 694,8 million that in comparison with the previous year is more on TJS 253,3 million.

The volume of reserve money as one of monetary policy basic program indicators, in 2015 has made TJS 7,0 billion, having increased in comparison with last year on 16,0 %.

3. Development of banking system

Further it has been noted that for the reporting period the activity of banking system of the country, first of all, was directed on stability of financial situation of credit institutions, support of both small and medium entrepreneurship and attraction of internal and foreign investments.

There are 17 banks, 106 microfinance institutions and 432 branches and departments functioning in the territory of the republic as of December 31, 2015. In comparison with 2014 the quantity of banks remains with no changes, however the quantity of non-bank credit institutions has decreased for 1 unit, microfinance institutions for 14 units, thus the quantity of bank branches has increased by 17 units.

The total assets of credit institutions for the end of fiscal year have made TJS 18,9 billion that in comparison with last year is more on 27,2 %. The total liabilities and balance capital of credit institutions have made TJS 16,2 billion and TJS 2,7 billion that in comparison with 2014 is more on 29,4 % and 15,3 % accordingly.

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Deposits

The Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan has noted the total balance of deposits for the specified period has made TJS 9 billion that in comparison with previous year is more on 35 %. The volume of deposits balance in comparison with last year in national currency has increased by 9,6 % and in foreign currency by 48,1 %. Their share in the structure of total balance of deposits in national currency has made 28,0 % and foreign currency - 72,0 %.

It is necessary to note that the volume of deposits of individuals and legal entities in comparison with last year has increased by 24,3 % and 53,3 % accordingly. Their share in the structure of total balance of deposits has made 58,6% and 41,4 % accordingly.

Credit investments

The volume of total balance of loans in 2015 has made TJS 11,4 billion that in comparison with previous year is more on 16,4 %.

The total amount of issued loans for the fiscal year has made TJS 12,2 billion, having increased in comparison with last year on 57,3 %. At the same time, the volume of repaid loans for this year has reached TJS 10,7 billion and a factor of their recovery has made 87,5 % of issued loans that in comparison with last year is more on 6,0 %.

A considerable part of the issued loans has been directed on various branches of economy including 28,8 % to industry, 18,1 % to construction, 17,7 % to foreign trade, 11,6 % to consumption, 8,6 % to agriculture, 6,8 % to transport, 3,3 % to financial intermediary, 2,8 % to services and 2,0% to other sectors of economy.

Also for this period a tendency of growth of credit investments to development of business as one of priority directions of the country has been noted. TJS 7,2 billion of loans’ total amount issued by banks for the reporting year or 59,1 % falls on industrial entrepreneurship that in comparison with the previous year is more for TJS 1,6 billion or 27,6 %.

It is necessary to note that a growth of long-term loans (for more than one year) is one of positive factors of economy growth and stability of financial system of the country. The balance of long-term loans every year grows and for the reporting period their volume has made (TJS 6,6 billion) 58,2 % of loans’ total balance.

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Payment system

It has been noted that it was effected more than 61,0 million payments for total amount of TJS 530,7 billion in the territory of the republic in 2015 by various ways of settlements and quantity of payments has decreased on 21,4 % in comparison with previous year and volume of payments has increased to 19,6 %.

For the end of 2015 the total amount of payment cards issued by credit institutions has reached 1,44 million units that in comparison with the previous year is more on 30,6 %.

It was ensured the regular activity of the National Payment System «KORTI MILLI» in 2015 and total quantity of participants of the given system has reached 17 units. It was issued 946,1 thousand national cards by credit institutions - participants of the National Payment System «KORTI MILLI» that in comparison with the previous year is more on 43,9 %.

For the reporting year as a whole it has been established 762 units of ATMs and 2214 units of point-of-sale terminals (including in cash issuing offices - 1 564 units and 650 units in points of sale) by credit institutions for servicing of owners of banking payment cards. The quantity of ATMs has increased for 58 units and point-of-sale terminals for 638 units in comparison with last year.

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Restructuring of the National Bank of Tajikistan

In accordance with the Resolution of Board of the National Bank of Tajikistan dd. June 25, 2015, No.114 the new structure of the National Bank of Tajikistan was approved in order to increase the productivity and efficiency of staff performance, regulating staff structure, elimination of duplicating functions, correct selection and placement of personnel and elimination of conflict of interests. It was reduced 197 staff jobs and activity of some structural subdivisions, which have no direct relation to bank management, is carried out by a self-financing principle.

Surveys held by the National Bank of Tajikistan

In order to study the opinion of experts of credit institutions, ministries and departments and as a whole, all population of the country, a number of surveys for assessment of certain sectors of banking system has been prepared and held. Also in a separate column of the official website of the National Bank of Tajikistan it is placed surveys concerning the magazine «Banking Development Globalization», «Banking statistical bulletin», «Balance of payments and external debt of the Republic of Tajikistan», «On exchange rate policy of the National Bank of Tajikistan in 2015», «On National Bank of Tajikistan in monetary policy field» and results of surveys on Fund for Insurance of Physical Persons Deposits. After the lapse of certain time the surveys will be summed up and other issues on various sectors of banking system will be placed for assessment by experts and clients.

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Measures on improvement of the National Bank of Tajikistan’s activity

In conclusion the Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan J. Nurmahmadzoda has noted that for the purpose of improvement of financial situation and implementation of reforms in the National Bank of Tajikistan, the Strategic plan on improvement of activity of the National Bank of Tajikistan for 2015-2019 has been developed. Its points are stage by stage carried out. The given Plan covers all aspects of activity of the National Bank of Tajikistan.

According to requirements of the given Plan it is scheduled to implement reforms in various sectors for effective realization of monetary policy, improvement of tools, monetary risks management improvement, capital regulation, economy dedollarization and increase of the population trust to national currency. Also it is studied comprehensively acting laws of banking system in the framework of the Strategic plan and necessary measures on their improvement are taken at the present.

In the final part of the press conference held in the open atmosphere, representatives of foreign and local mass-media have received precise responds on their questions concerning a rise in prices for goods, cooperation with banks of China and international financial institutions, volume of gold and exchange currency reserves of the country, foreign currency rate fluctuation, situation with national currency, drops in prices for oil and its influence on national currency exchange rate, also inflation rate, receipt of remittances from Russia, attraction of foreign investments to economy, use of payment cards, volumes of money supply in circulation and economy crediting.

Press-service  
NBT



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