Presentation By Jamoliddin Nuraliev: Comprehensive analysis of the banking sector, guidance for industry development

“Institutional transformations of the banking sector of Tajikistan through challenging economic circumstances. Rebuilding Confidence". This topic was presented by First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan Nuraliev Jamoliddin Kamolovich on February 7, 2022 as part of a workshop-meeting organized at State Financial and Economic University of Tajikistan.

At the beginning of the event, the Rector of the State Financial and Economic University of Tajikistan Shukrullo Khairzoda expressed gratitude to Nuraliev Jamoliddin, First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan for preparing the presentation that makes significant contribution to development of financial thinking and formation of practical knowledge. "I would like to emphasize that today's meeting - seminar was organized upon the initiative of the University, and was supported by First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan. I am sure that, using this opportunity, the faculty, PhD students and other students can benefit from knowledge and experience of Jamoliddin Kamolovich" - said Shukrullo Khairzoda.

At the very beginning, First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan, Jamoliddin Kamolovich, noted that comprehensive analysis and consideration of banking system issues from the point of view of modern realities can significantly increase the level of practical knowledge and skills, develop financial and economic thinking, and expand economic horizons of young people, considering modern theory and expertise, which has positive impact on the further development of banking system.

Then, Nuraliev Jamoliddin, First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan introduced main components of the presentation to the audience. These components touched upon such issues as :effective implementation of monetary and foreign exchange policies, main macroeconomic indicators, banking system development, stable development of foreign exchange market, anti-crisis strategy, institutional reforms of the National of the Bank of Tajikistan for 2015-2021, measures taken by NBT to prevent the impact of Covid-19 pandemic, future vision.

During the presentation, Nuraliev Jamoliddin, First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan spoke about the main macroeconomic indicators, in particular GDP, real economic growth, inflation and inflation volatility trends over the past 11 years (2011-2021). With regard to monetary policy implementation, it was mentioned that there were transition processes from the traditional monetary targeting regime to a qualitatively new monetary policy regime - inflation targeting to ensure price stability and maintain stable inflation rate, increasing confidence in national currency. Also, matters on rational reserves allocation, growth of domestic investment, creating favorable conditions for real economic growth and improve the wellbeing of the population, were touched upon. Moreover, Jamoliddin Kamolovich noted that from 2015 to present the development of a monetary policy strategy for 2016-2020 and 2021-2025 has begun with the view to switch to inflation targeting regime. Several surveys were conducted among the population on inflation expectations, certain work has been done to implement new effective monetary instruments in order to manage short-term liquidity and enhance open market operations, improve analytical capacity and forecasting (using empirical models), transit to new standards and methodologies of international statistics, introduce centralized automated platform for transparency of electronic trading, increase the impact of refinancing rate to inflation rate, ensuring transparency in monetary transactions, etc. As a result of conducted reforms, the inflation rate remained within the projected indicator and the stability of the national currency exchange rate was ensured Afterwards, First Deputy Chairman of National Bank of Tajikistan spoke about the state of the banking system and developments in its structure as a result of the “transition from quantity to quality” reforms, which led to the improvement of banking system assets quality, decrease in non-performing loans, increase in adequacy and liquidity ratios, increase in lending volume over the past 6 years. It was noted that as a result of a qualitative improvement in the banking system, main indicators of financial stability, remain at a high level, overall, there is still continued improvement in the banking system.

Clarifying modern models for assessing the risk tolerance of the banking system through diagrams, Jamoliddin Kamolovich, demonstrated vulnerability of banking system to external factors in 2016 and high level of resistance to them under the threat of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The following part of the presentation was focused on institutional reforms, including establishment of the National Processing Center for Remittances (NPCR) and unique institutionally balanced model for the transparency of foreign exchange flows, which aims to ensure institutional transparency, healthy competition in the domestic foreign exchange market and development of banking system at a qualitatively new level. It was emphasized that after the launch of the NPCR, the risks associated with the liquidity of payment systems were completely eliminated, which made it possible to ensure healthy competition in the money transfer market, significantly reduce the risks of laundering proceeds from crime, financing terrorism and financing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and give a strong impetus to the growth of non-cash payment infrastructure.

At the same time, detailed information was provided on the basis of analysis of the past 11 years on the stable growth of foreign exchange market and the reform of structural units engaged in exchange operations, on mechanisms for conducting foreign exchange auctions of the NBT, strategy for distributing assets in international reserves management and diversifying their structure, effective exchange rate policy and currency fluctuation management through the mechanism of foreign exchange intervention, national currency volatility analysis due to changes in the foreign exchange rate and oil prices, etc.

It should be noted that the presentation prepared by Jamoliddin Kamolovich was presented in three languages - state, Russian and English. Over the presentation, participants were able to get specific answers to their questions on problems of the banking system, including deposits and loans, overnight loans, risk management caused by external factors, implementation of monetary policy taking into account new inflation targeting regime, artificial intelligence development and plans NBT for 2022.

In the final part of the presentation, Nuraliev Jamoliddin Kamolovich, First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan expressed the hope that in the current financial and economic conditions meetings of such format can contribute to the development of thinking, mindset and raising the level of scientific knowledge of students and youth.

Summing up the results of the practical seminar, the Rector of the State Financial and Economic University of Tajikistan Shukrullo Khairzoda expressed his gratitude to Jamoliddin Nuraliev for the comprehensive presentation.

“The manner, as well as the format of presentation material, which covers a wide range of economic and banking issues, aroused the interest of the participants. It provided an opportunity to use and benefit from knowledge and international experience acquired from Jamoliddin Kamolovich ” has said Shukrullo Khairzoda.

This is to remind, that the idea of organizing this meeting was proposed by the State Financial and Economic University of Tajikistan and supported by First Deputy Chairman of the NBT. The purpose of this presentation was to introduce new forms and methods of education as part of the implementation of educational reforms for teachers, graduate students and university students of the country, as well as to increase the level of knowledge and skills, develop financial and economic thinking, expand economic outlook of young people taking into account modern theories and approaches.

Press Division