Brief macroeconomic review and results of activity of banking system of Tajikistan for the first quarter of 2011

The results of activity of the National Bank of Tajikistan and banking system of the country for the first quarter of 2011, course of implementation of monetary policy, inflation’s rate, exchange rate of national currency, volume of remittances, development of banking system, deposits and other actual issues have been discussed at the next press-conference of the National Bank of Tajikistan, held on April 21, 2011 in the republican press-centre for domestic and foreign journalists.

Addressing to journalists, the Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan Sh. Rahimzoda has noted that for the first quarter of 2011 a stable growth of national economy and its banking system was observed, which basic indicators are characterized as follows:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The value of the GDP for the reporting period has made TJS 4,4 billion and its real growth in compare to the similar period of last year reached 6,5%.

Inflation. According to the Statistical Agency the rate of inflation for the first quarter has made 4,5 %, concerning the similar period of last year is more on 2,9 %. In particular, for this period raised foodstuff and has made 6,6 %, prices on not food production raised on 0,8% and services on 2,2 %.

Annual inflation (for last 12 months) for the reporting period has made 13 %, that in comparison with the same period of last year has increased to 7,6 %.

(Reference information: according to statistical data of the World Bank, last quarter the price for wheat in the world markets has increased concerning the similar period of last year to 60,9 %, vegetable oil - 81,7 % and oil to 36,9 %).

The results of analyses of the National bank of Tajikistan the level of base inflation for the first quarter of current year (without influence of external, seasonal and administrative factors) has made 1,3 %, having increased in comparison with the corresponding period of last year on 0,6 %. Annual base of inflation (for last 12 months) for the specified period has made 3,5 %, that concerning the corresponding period of last year is more on 4,4 %.

Exchange Rate of Somoni in relation to US dollar in compare to the beginning of the year decreased on1,4%.

Trading Balance. The foreign trade turnover for the reporting period made USD 155,0 million and increased by 45,5 % against the first quarter of last year, in particular: export has increased to 57,8 %, having reached USD 399,0 million and import has increased to 39,7 %, having made USD 756,0 million. The deficit of trading balance made USD 357,0 million concerning the first quarter of last year has increased for 23,8 %.

Despite risks and changes in the world market, a macroeconomic situation in the country has reflected a tendency of stable growth of volumes of remittances.

Monetary Policy.  In the first quarter of 2011, as a result of carrying out of a rigid monetary and credit policy and in connection with stability of financial and economic indicators of the country and growth of inflationary pressure the refinancing rate has been raised from 8,25 % to 9,0 %. The specification of obligatory reserves remained without changes and makes for deposits in national and foreign currencies of 7,0 % and 9,0 %.

The amount of reserve money as of March 31 of current year made TJS 2868,7 million decreased to 4,1 % and having increased ot 28.5% (TJS 635,8 million) in compare to the similar period of last year.

Cash volume has in circulation made TJS 2,5 billion of which TJS 21,2 million made metal coins and for the reporting period the money put into circulation made TJS 190,2 million and TJS 100,0 million of shabby and unsuitable banknotes have been withdrawn from circulation.

Development of Banking System.  The quantity of banking institutions for the reporting period reached 138 units, including 14 banks, 2 non-bank credit institutions, 35 deposit micro-credit institutions, 43 micro-credit institutions, 44 micro-lending funds.

Deposits. For this period the increase of deposits in compare to the first quarter of last year has made 37,1 %, and has reached TJS 3,5 billion. Deposits of individuals have increased to 54,6 % and made TJS 1,7 bullion. The average interest rate of time deposits in national currency has made 16,73 %, in foreign currency it made 15,86 %. The average interest rate of time deposits has decreased in national currency to 3,4%, in foreign currency to 0,3%.

Credits. The total balance of credits for the reporting period increased to 12,2 % and reached TJS 6,3 billion, 68,6 % of which consisted of credits in national currency and rest 31,4% - credits in foreign currency. The volume of extended credits for this period made TJS 1,6 billion, that is more for 57,7 % against the first quarter of previous year.

According to recent data the average maturity of credits for the first quarter of current year for individuals makes 368 days, for legal entities-334 days. The average interest rate of credits, which extended in national currency makes 22,59 %, in foreign currency - 22,76 %.

During the first quarter of current year the volume of small credits increased to 29,0 % having made TJS 529,6 million.

Payments System. The total quantity of payments on the republic has increased to 20,0 % and has reached 2,9 million units. The total amount of payments has made TJS 32,5 billion that is more for 25,5 % against the first quarter of previous year.

There are 9 banks operating in the republic, which are emitters of plastic cards, they released 175723 units of payment cards, its increase makes 2,5 %. Besides, for the reporting period it was observed a considerable increase of quantity of ATM in comparison with the first quarter of last year that reached to 253 units, cash issuing offices - 239 units and points-of-sale – 105 units.

During the meeting, which lasted more than one hour, foreign and local journalists have received precise answers to their questions. In their questions representatives of mass media were interested basically in problems of banking system, inflation’s rate, and increase of amount of shabby banknotes in circulation, volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the country, attraction of foreign investments to economy of the republic and incoming remittances from labour migrants.

Press-Service
   NBT