Reduction of required reserves ratio of credit financial institutions

Press release

In order to develop timely measures as well as maintain the liquidity of credit financial institutions, in connection with the increase of possible impact of risks associated with the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), in accordance with the Resolution approved at the extraordinary meeting of Monetary Policy Committee of the required reserves ratio of credit financial institutions for savings and other similar liabilities are temporarily set at 1% in national currency and 5% in foreign currency from 1 April to 31 December, 2020. The acting standards of credit financial institutions for savings and other similar liabilities amounted to 3% in national currency and 9% in foreign currency as of March 31, 2020.

The inflation rate and influencing factors. According to statistics, the annual inflation rate in February 2020 has made 7.8% [1], which is more for 1.4 percentage points than the same period of last year. In the structure of prevailing inflation, a rise in prices for foodstuffs (5.4 percentage points) was mainly observed due to “basic effect” and influence of seasonal factors, instability in the world and countries - main trading partners, a rise in prices for imported foodstuffs and decrease of production, falling and insufficient supply of domestic market with agricultural products in the winter. The share of non-food products and services amounted to 1.6 and 8.8 percentage points respectively.

Expectations and risks: We note that since the end of December, 2019 to March 31, 2020 due to the outbreak of new coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) in the People's Republic of China, hundred thousand became infected with this virus and ten thousands died. This disease has spread all over the world.

According to WHO data, as of March 31, 2020, more than 942 thousands in the world became infected with this disease, including the number of infected in the countries - main trading partners of our country as the following: Turkey - 15.7 thousand, Russian Federation 3.5 thousand, Kazakhstan 402 people , Afghanistan 239 people, Uzbekistan 190 people, and Kyrgyzstan 116 people.

In the Russian Federation, which is one of the main strategic partners of the Republic of Tajikistan, uncertainty, economic instability, depreciation of the ruble and the slowdown in the international trade are already observed due to the influence of the new coronavirus pandemic. According to preliminary estimates by the S&P rating company, in 2020, due to the spread of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the Russian economy will face a recession of up to -0.8%.

Also it should be noted that as of March 31, 2020, the average price of Brent crude oil on the world exchanges per barrel amounted to USD 26.9 decreasing by 59.2% compared to December 31, 2019. The analysis shows that the price of oil for the Russian economy is considered one of the most important indicators and a fall in its price strongly affects the Russian national currency (ruble). As of April 1, 2020, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar decreased by 27.1% compared to the beginning of the year.

Given the current situation, many central banks of foreign countries, for example, the Eurozone countries, Turkey, the USA, Canada, Pakistan, Moldova, Armenia, Ukraine and others have begun to implement stimulating monetary policies to support the economy, especially supporting the manufacturing sector as well as overcoming inflationary and exchange rate risks.

The spread of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) had a negative impact on the global economy, including the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan due to the increase of the external factors influence, in particular, limited transport links and reduced trade relations. This situation in the short term can lead to higher prices for imported goods, a reduction in the investment, a decrease in household incomes as well as a weakening of national currency and a possible increase of financial risks in credit financial institutions.

Monetary policy terms. Taking into account the above mentioned factors, the NBT Monetary Policy Committee in order to maintain the liquidity of credit financial institutions, reduce additional costs and cost of loans provided to economic sectors, has decided to temporarily lower the required reserves ratio for deposits and other similar liabilities in national currency up to 2 p.p. and in foreign currency by 4 p.p. by December 31, 2020. This measure can improve the financial capacity of credit financial institutions during the crisis by providing the banking system with additional liquidity in the amount of TJS 241.7 million.

The National Bank of Tajikistan will continue to implement monetary policy in order to achieve price stability in the medium term and ensure liquidity of the banking system.

Press Division

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[1] According to the Monetary Policy Projection of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2020 and the medium term, the established inflation target for 2020 is 6.0% (+/- 2 percentage points).