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Short macroeconomic review and results of activity of banking system of Tajikistan for the first half year of 2011
The results of activity of the National Bank of Tajikistan and banking system of the country for the first half-year of 2011, course of implementation of monetary policy, inflation rate, exchange rate of national currency, development of banking system, deposits and other most important issues of the branch have been discussed at the next press-conference of the National Bank of Tajikistan, taken place on July 21,
The First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan Jamshed Yusufiyon in his address to journalists has noted that for six months of
1. Macroeconomic indicators
Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The amount of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the reporting period has made TJS 11,2 billion and its real growth has reached 6,9 % in comparison with the same period of previous year
Inflation. According to data of the Agency on Statistics under the President of the RT, the inflation rate for the first half-year made 7,1 % that concerning the similar period of last year is more for 4,3%. In particular, for this period tariffs for services and foodstuffs prices have increased the most, which have made 10,0 % and 8,0 % accordingly. Prices for non-foodstuffs have increased to 3,7 %.
As Jamshed Yusufiyon has noted, the given increase has occurred basically for the account of rise in prices for the imported goods, such as fuel materials, wheat, flour and vegetable oil and also rise in prices for seasonal products. All it has in turn caused a growth of production costs, which have directly affected a rise in prices for separate goods and products, such as meat, meat products, services of passenger transport.
The annual inflation (for last 12 months) for the indicated period has made 14,5 % that concerning the corresponding period of last year is more for 9,5%.
For information: (According to the statistical data of the World Bank, for the reporting period the prices for wheat in the world markets have increased concerning the similar period of last year to 71,0 %, vegetable oil to 72,6 % and oil to 42,9 %).
According to analyses of experts of the National Bank of Tajikistan the level of core inflation (without influence of external, administrative and seasonal factors) for the first half year of this year has made 1,4 %.
Exchange rate of Somoni in relation to US dollar for this period has decreased by 6,02 %. The given change has occurred mainly under the influence of external shocks in connection with a rise in prices for basic imported goods in the world market (mineral oil, flour and wheat). At present, in connection with decrease in inflationary pressure the exchange rate of national currency is at stable level.
Trade balance. The foreign trade turnover for the reporting period has made USD 2 billion and 214,5 million and has increased to 31,1 % concerning the first half-year of last year. In particular: the export volume has increased to 23,2 %, having reached USD 686,4 million and volume of import has increased to 34,8 % and has made USD 1 billion 528,1 million. The deficit of trade balance has made USD 841,7 million that in comparison with the similar period of last year is more for 45,9 %.
Despite considerable changes in the world market and inflationary pressure a macroeconomic situation in the country has a tendency of stability and considerable strengthening of indicators.
2. Monetary policy
In connection with stability of financial and economic indicators of the country and growth of inflationary pressure for the reporting period it was implemented tight monetary policy and refinancing rate has been raised from 8,25 % to 9,0 %. The reserve requirements standards remained without changes and make for deposits in national and foreign currencies 7,0 % and 9,0 % accordingly.
The volume of reserve money as a program indicator as of June 30 of this year has made TJS 3 billion and 139,1 million and has increased in comparison with the beginning of the year to 5 % and it has increased in comparison with similar date of last year for 38,1 % (TJS 866,4 million).
The cash volume in circulation has made TJS 2,6 billion, TJS 21,4 million of which make metal coins. For six months of 2011 it was issued TJS 418,9 million and TJS 230,4 million of shabby and unsuitable denominations have been withdrawn from circulation.
3. Development of banking system (recent data)
The number of credit institutions for the reporting period has reached 139 units. Now there are 14 banks, 2 non-bank credit institutions, 35 micro credit deposit institutions, 43 micro-lending institutions, 45 micro-lending funds functioning in the territory of the republic.
Deposits. As of June 30, 2011 the increase in deposits concerning the similar period of last year has made 33,9 %, and has reached TJS 3,7 billion. Deposits of individuals have increased to 60,4 % and have made TJS 2,0 billion.
The average interest rates of time deposits in national currency has made 16,24 %, in foreign currency - 15,19 %. The average interest rate of time deposits has decreased in national currency by 3,5%, in foreign currency by 0,4% in comparison with the first half-year of last year.
Loans. Total balances of loans of banking system for the reporting period has increased to 33,7 % and has reached TJS 4,4 bullion, 48,9 % of them were loans in national currency and rest 51,1 % were loans in foreign currency. The volume of the issued loans for this period has made TJS 3,3 billion that in comparison with the first half-year of last year was more for 47,5 %.
The average maturity term of loans for the first half-year of current year for individuals makes 192 days, for legal entities - 309 days. The average interest rate of loans, which are issued in national currency has made 23,13 %, in foreign currency – 22,43 %. In comparison with the first half-year of last year the average interest rate of loans has decreased by 1,0% in national currency and by 2,2% in foreign currency.
For this period the amount of small loans has increased concerning the previous first half-year to 29,9 %, having made TJS 1 billion and 154,5 million.
Payments system. The total quantity of payments in the republic for the first half-year of current year has increased to 23,5 % and has reached 6,6 million units. The total amount of payments has made TJS 66,8 billion, having increased in comparison with the corresponding period of last year to 18,4 %
It has been noted that now 10 banks – emitters of plastic cards function in the territory of the republic, they issued 222 thousand 492 units of payment cards for the end of the reporting period, an increase makes 2,8 times. Besides, for the reporting period it was observed significant increase in quantity of ATMs for 290 units, cash issuing offices for 258 units and points of sale for 113 units that in comparison with the first half-year of last year is more to 97 units (50,3 %), 100 units (63,3 %) and 19 units (20,2 %) accordingly.
During the second part of press-conference, which was lasted in business and interesting atmosphere, foreign and local journalists have received precise answers the questions. Representatives of mass media in their questions were interested, basically in problems of banking system, inflation rates, increase of shabby banknotes in circulation, exchange rate of national currency, volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the country, establishment of National Processing Centre, attraction of foreign investments into economy of the republic, use of payment cards and volume of national currency, being in circulation.
Press-service
National Bank of Tajikistan