Short macroeconomic overview and activity of the banking system of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2018

On February 9, 2018 a regular press conference on results of activities of National Bank of Tajikistan and the country's banking system for 2017 with participation of representatives of domestic and foreign media was held.

At the beginning of the press conference, the Chairman of National Bank of Tajikistan, Jamshed Nurmahmadzoda has noted that in 2017 the National Bank of Tajikistan directed its consistent effective monetary and exchange rate policies to ensure a stable growth of money supply in the economy, maintaining the necessary price level, financial stability and promoting stable growth of economy.

1. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country in 2017 amounted to TJS 61.1 billion, its real growth reached 7.1%, which is 0.2% more than in 2016. Growth of the economy during this period was facilitated by an increase of industrial production on 21.3%, agricultural products -6.8%, increase of investment to fixed assets on 4.1% and retail trade turnover on 6.6%.

Inflation. In 2017, as a result of implementation of active anti-inflationary policy, including the use of effective monetary instruments, as well as stabilization of domestic foreign exchange market, a stable level of inflation in the country was ensured.
According to statistics, the inflation rate in 2017 has made 6.7%, having increased for 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year. It should be noted that the inflation level was formed within the framework of target indicators, which for the year 2017 was projected within 7.0%.

2. Monetary policy
According to statistical data, the amount of reserve money as of December 31, 2017 has made TJS 14.6 billion, the volume of cash in circulation amounted to TJS 11.7 billion and compared to 2016 the volume of reserve money increased by 20.9% (in 2016 -71.2% against to 2015) and cash flow in circulation by 39.0% (in 2016- 58.2% compared to 2015).
In 2017, in order to meet the needs of the economy in cash, TJS 5.0 billion somoni were issued in circulation, which is more for 2.5% than in 2016.

Taking into account the reduction of inflation risks, the National Bank of Tajikistan in January of this year has reduced the refinancing rate by 1.25% and set it at 14.75%.

3. Exchange rate of national currency
The exchange rate policy pursued by the NBT was continued, based on the "floating rate regime without defining and declaring the limits of exchange rate changes".

In 2017, the official exchange rate of somoni in relation to the US dollar decreased by 12.0% (in 2016 the decline has made 10.8%). The cash market rate of the US dollar increased by 12.4% (in 2016 - 6.4%) and as of December 31, 2017 the difference between the official exchange rate and cash rate has made 0.9%.

4. Banking system
There are 84 credit institutions operate in the territory of the country as of December 31, 2017, including 17 banks, 27 microcredit deposit organizations, 7 microcredit organizations and 33 micro-lending funds.

Total assets and total liabilities of credit institutions for this period amounted to TJS 20.9 billion and TJS 15.2 billion accordingly. The amount of assets and liabilities in compare to 2016 has decreased by 1.2% and 3.1% accordingly. The balance capital increased by 4.1%, amounting to TJS 5.7 billion.

Deposits. The total amount of balances of deposits as of December 31, 2017 has made TJS 9.3 billion, which was more for 0.4% than in 2016. The volume of deposits in national currency increased by 19.2% and decreased in foreign currency by 10.9%. Their share in the structure of total deposits in national currency has made 44.6%, in foreign currency - 55.4% (in 2016 - 37.6% and 62.4% respectively). This indicator shows a decline of dollarization of economy.

Credit investments. The total amount of loan balances of credit institutions as of December 31, 2017 has made TJS 7.9 billion, having decreased by 1.3% compared to 2016.

At the same time, for the reporting period, lending had a positive trend and compared to 2016, the number of issued loans has increased by 7.5% or 33.6 thousand and reached 479.1 thousand. This indicator shows an increase of loans number issued to customers as well as small and medium-sized business.

In 2017, the volume of small loans provided by credit institutions amounted to TJS 3.8 billion having increased by 5.3% compared to 2016.

In the total volume of loans issued during this period, the share of production entrepreneurship has made 58.4%, in terms of economy branches the share of foreign trade accounts 20.3%, industry -46.9%, consumption -13.9%, services -6.5% agriculture -6.5%, construction -3.2%, transport -1.3% and other fields -1.4%.

5. Payment system
In 2017, there were effected 84.9 million payments for total amount of TJS 681.6 billion in the territory of the republic by various settlement systems and compared to 2016, the number of payments increased by 40.0% and volume of payments by 65.3%.

As of December 31, 2017, the total number of payment cards issued by domestic banks reached more than 1 694.2 thousand units, which was more for 4.6% than in 2016. The number of owners of payment cards increased by 4.2% compared to 2016, amounting to 1,672,400 people.

Throughout 2017, 17.6 million units of transactions were made through bank payment cards totaling TJS 8.3 billion, which is more for 16.7% than in 2016. From this amount non-cash payments for goods and services have made TJS 387.6 million, which is more for 39.0% than in 2016.

6. Applications of citizens
At the end of his speech, the Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan, Jamshed Nurmahmadzoda, stressed that in order to protect the rights of consumers of banking system services, the reception and consideration of citizens' application by the National Bank of Tajikistan is carried out in written and oral form, via telephones and official website. In 2017, in total 2,995 requests and complaints were accepted for consideration in accordance with established procedure.

At the end of the press conference, representatives of foreign and local media received specific answers for their questions regarding reforms in the banking system, macroeconomic situation, monetary and exchange rate policies, inflation, remittances, attracting foreign investment to the economy, using payment cards, money supply in circulation and level of public confidence to banking system.

Press Division of NBT